PECOTA Projections

Download the 2023 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance

PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.

Download the 2023 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)

PECOTA Release Notes
March 3, 2023

• Widened distribution of wins and losses across the pitcher pool to
  match more closely historical rates.
• Adjusted projected midpoint for DRC+/DRA/DRA- to align with depth-chart-projected playing time.
• Removed some pitchers from the hitting spreadsheet.
• Quality of life improvements: frozen cells, filters, bold headers.
• Depth chart updates through March 2.

Previous years PECOTA Spreadsheets (subscription required)